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Dołączył: 07 Paź 2010
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 Wysłany: Sob 2:03, 04 Gru 2010 Temat postu: My Recent Price |
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the status of recent price
recent introduction of real estate-intensive control policy has on the current trend in housing prices has played a certain deterrent effect, whether it is a new house or second-hand housing market turnover have shrunk dramatically, prices are also different degrees of decline. Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities, the data show that second-hand housing market, the first period of adjustment, a \Centaline latest statistics show that 29 April to 5 May Day, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and second-hand housing turnover five largest cities the week before the New Deal than the regulation of more than 50% fall in prices of some of the loose listing .
At the same time, Beijing and Shanghai land market began to cool. May 7, Beijing Shunyi District land, the developers actually lower than the lowest offer 流拍 result, while the king the same day the old Shanghai is the New Jiangwan C4-frequency block, only the opening price. The industry believes that land price trend is a leading indicator, can a barometer of future price movements play a role. Help lower the premium real estate developers for the future price movements are not very good. Some people believe that the recent real estate developers have been picking up other prices Hengda flag a domino effect may trigger a new round of price surges. However, this trend can go far lower false, for how long,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but worth considering.
retaliatory price rebound can not be avoided
the property market in volume and price or status of the New Deal that the recent series of real estate has begun to play a role. However, this control can really solve the problem of the real estate industry? I'm skeptical.
the focus of the current round of real estate regulation is to control the housing demand in the real estate market forced cooling. But the market for how long the current round of policy can still wait and see, Ren Zhiqiang, president of Huayuan Property recently told the media that \and thus a threat to macroeconomic. Thus, the current policy may be continued not long. \incentives, opened the round of price increases, \
measured just the right policy is indeed difficult, a place to house prices shot up people sulked, a collection to enter the \This makes the management know what to do, just hit fever-pin Wei Wan Da Bu Pills, policies, unpredictable.
to open the issue of prescription of real estate, we must find the root of the problem. Some people think that the problem lies in supply and demand, the housing consumption and investment demand is too large to land and real estate supply capacity is inadequate; There are arguments that the real economy in the overflow of capital and foreign hot money in pushing up house prices; and still others Land Finance forced the government to become the biggest promoter of real estate prices; more, that is the nail households raise the cost of land due to wild speculation. Appears to have reasonable points of view, but it can not withstand close scrutiny.
stands to reason that prices are market issues, supply and demand determine price, or value determines the price. But whether to see \The reasons for this situation, we believe that is rooted, hidden price formation mechanism of non-market factors, and that this factor is the dominant real estate prices, the core of the problem.
Let us look at the composition of housing prices, there are three, the first is the price of land, followed by the cost of the land into the middle of the house, including construction costs and related taxes, and the third is the real estate business and property owners In the transaction process for profit.
start with simple questions to start analysis.
First of all, real estate developers and property owners profit requirement is nothing wrong,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but determined by the characteristics of market economy fully competitive industry profits in the long-term sustainability is difficult. If an industry profit is much higher than the average social return on investment, will continue to attract capital inflows and lead to social competition,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and finally to disappear or even industry profits below the social average.
Second,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], construction costs and related property taxes are relatively transparent, and its limited impact on prices, which do not need to say more.
Finally, the price of land. On the surface,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], this is the price cost structure to find the cause of high prices the only problem. First, developers get to raise prices, pushing up prices at the source: This year's sites around the frequency is, the floor price is higher than the price of existing homes, which is also known as \over bread. \Second, people's expectations of land prices will be reflected in the price on: If you know the price of land would be, why not let the house prices do first?
land prices, is the one that was hidden in the \Although it seems the market through auction with the color, but the nature of non-market oriented.
the so-called market, is the main component of many markets the supply side and demand-side, through the supply and demand to determine prices. But China's current land market, although there are numerous needs of persons, but only one supplier, it is the government, but not really a government-owned land, but \Constituted by all the people of the State, \
of land owned, the people have property they do not own the land occupied by real estate ownership, only 50 years to 70 years of tenure. Government does not have true ownership of land, so its in the disposal of land, land users need to pay a use right transfer compensation.
This distribution problem of interest. To make the land into the supply market, the land so that those who exercise land ownership and agency of government to carry out the distribution of benefits to be, so that those who receive relocation, the government obtained a surplus of land transfer. The new land so that those who want to honor the land value-added, and the government should do a re-distribution of this situation only to create more interest next increment (that is, jack up prices) in order to meet government and land users the double value-added requirements.
result of this, a bad cycle: people occupy the land in government-led value-added of the circulation, but can only increase the value added part of the proceeds in income but not all, land distribution once people get part of profits to decline. One must make a choice in the two situations, either through price increases to compensate for the overall points go by the interests of either indemnities out. It is clear that the former than the latter due to social conflicts and problems to be much smaller. Therefore, in the current ownership of land rights can not fix the situation, the premium will rise not fall, which also led to increasingly high expectations on housing prices.
New Deal real estate
current symptoms not only permanent cure, it is only by making the real estate market traders forced out of the way, to achieve short-term cooling effect. Once the limit has been relaxed, those who will come back out, their loss is bound to be intensified to get it back, in this situation, the future price of revenge rebound can not be avoided.
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