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 Wysłany: Śro 10:48, 13 Kwi 2011 Temat postu: Falling prices How to Make |
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Falling prices How to Make?
prices really are this time had fallen. Months, all of China's real estate market seems to fall into the Bingku, prices continued to decline, volume was light in the doldrums, newspapers and television properties for sale in Sale at breakdown diving common Dapi price promotions people gripped by means of authoritative data show that for Shenzhen represent the cumulative rate of urban house prices fell more than 30% of the more shocking. Finally the city surging prices of its low head mighty high!
What makes cities throughout China general decline in housing prices? Understand the significance of this issue to the parties, even if the Government can predict in advance the consequences of a timely adjustment policies, but also enables enterprises to clear trends for the industry to prepare for it, but also enable consumers to all types of information in front of the complex keep a clear mind in order to capture the exact time to buy.
the usual economic theory to explain the current decline in housing prices is difficult to puzzle
from an economic point of view, a commodity price change generally no more than two reasons: one is the supply and demand imbalance, which belongs to the scope of price theory; two of inflation (or deflation), which are areas of monetary theory. However, from the currently available data, both theories seem to Recent times can not explain the price decline.
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price theory layman's terms is that when a commodity's supply of ever-increasing demand is shrinking or no corresponding increases, the price drop is inevitable. Look at the supply: the current official figures show (from the focus of Real Estate Network), first half of 2008 led by the representative of the prices in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai, three cities, their residential real estate area has been completed over the same period last year decreased by 27.9%, 32.2% and 12.5%, and the chain fell in the second half more, nationwide, there are many other cities in similar situations. Not only that, in addition to the reduction of real estate has been completed, the volume of residential land around is also falling sharply, according to the Department of Homeland analysis report has just open this year, the first half of the total land supply less than 25.27% over the same period last year, once have been snapping up land rush no longer reproduce the phenomenon, the land has been traded 流拍 or give up a huge deposit also been seen in news media. Land is the carrier of the house, the reduction of land transactions, which means that within the next few years the supply of housing continued to show a downward trend in the number. Look at the requirements: the first half of the Chinese economy despite the slowdown in the pace of development, but GDP still grew year over year 10.4%, which increased by 11.3% in secondary industry and tertiary industry increased by 10.5%, much higher than the primary industry growth rate of 3.5%, indicating that China's urbanization process was still an irresistible trend (second and third industries are relying on cities), the majority of people on the housing needs of the city did not fall off the grounds. Supply growth in demand is obviously down, but prices do the opposite, so the price of microeconomic theory does not explain the price drop this.
express monetary theory is simple and obvious, when the society the amount of currency in circulation increased significantly, but did not increase the total wealth of society or increase the rate of increase well below the rate of the currency, the entire community of goods will have varying degrees of prices. It is rare in ancient times as a medium of circulation, due to limited production of rare metals, and its own can not be increased according to the wishes of the people, so that there is no inflation when one said. The emergence of inflation appear in the notes after the notes are the advantages of convenient portable transaction, but the defect can not be ignored, because the issue of paper money based on the credit of the government, and notes (including notes, etc.) is unlimited printed. Stretched hand, if the government or any other reason (most economists believe that inflation and appreciation of this concerned is not in place), so that the Government had to start printing machine, then the whole society will greatly increase the money supply. In theory, doubling the money supply, then the whole community of goods prices will double. The difference between it and the price theory is that the latter is a discussion of a commodity or down, when inflation in prices of all commodities. China is now in a publicly acknowledged the government is high inflation period, the CPI rose 7.9% in the first half, all kinds of commodity prices in China have more substantial gains, covering energy, labor, all kinds of raw materials, agricultural products Some do not use excessive or alarming. But what is puzzling is that in the Chinese traditional values, preservation of the house but in most other commodity prices continue to climb down when not up, really is incredible, therefore, macroeconomic monetary theory also can not explain The falling house prices. sharp price fall under the Bo how management control is like mixing in a straight line? .
what reason is the cost of time to promote large-scale decline in house prices culprit it? In addition to these two reasons, economists also recognize people's psychological expectations also contributed to one of the major ups and downs of a commodity, Keynes and even psychological expectation that an important human instinct. The question is, psychological reason is expected to have, starting from the supply and demand should be the price now, from the current situation of inflation should be the price now, thousands of consumers are actually different to expect a high degree of consensus Housing prices will fall behind the support for that?
simple analog data or phenomena observed decline in house prices does not help understand the nature of
a lot of people, or a simple analogy from empirical data or related policies or to find reason in everyday phenomena:
some people say that the price and income out of proportion, that price should be 4-6 times the annual household income is about more appropriate, but China has reached more than ten times, so high people could not afford house prices Therefore, high prices will not long support. People who hold this view is the distribution of wealth in China do not understand the situation, the Western countries the Gini coefficient is generally between 0.3-0.4, while the end of 2007 China's Gini coefficient has reached 0.49. Western countries that the distribution of wealth more evenly, and most people are middle income, price earnings ratio has some guidance on their significance; and distribution of wealth in China is extremely poor, most of the wealth in few hands to grasp, when the Most people, when called for high prices, most real estate is just the launch of almost everything to be divided up. Therefore, the price earnings ratio of the data can not be a reason for falling prices (of course this does not mean that possession of wealth by a few people are right.)
some people say that the house prices and rental income is also disproportionate, that price should be about 10-15 times the annual rent was more appropriate, but we are generally rental income of China's current return on most of them in 4%, so high prices can not get long-term support. People who hold this view is the mental status of the Chinese people do not understand, now holds more than one housing units, there are several to rent? There are few people who have money and no room would be to calculate what the program is cost-effective rent and buy a house? The first is to consider their house will not continue to rise, as long as housing prices in part to interest income over the bank, then back to buy early wins; second consideration is the currency will fall, if money is less and less valuable, in the absence of more reliable investment channels before, buy a house is the best investment choices. Traditional cultural practices in China also decided to not choose to rent a house is a very shameful thing. Therefore, rents are lower than the data rate can not be reason for falling prices.
some people say that U.S. house prices are declining, China's housing prices do an island? This simple method appears to be too far-fetched analogy. The history of the United States how long the construction of housing? U.S. per capita land area is how many times we? U.S. per capita housing area is much bigger than us? These problems will not understand how these prices with the United States claims that China's synchronized Price Change, it seems logical to withstand strict scrutiny. Others say there are cycles of any industry, there will be peaks and troughs, as the year of the Japanese real estate has fame, and later fell into a long slump. These words is undoubtedly correct in theory, but the peaks and troughs are formed? Peak because of short supply, low is due to oversupply, but China's land is not private, land supply is not as free trading as Japan, but strictly controlled by the government planned supply. Planned economy, the most notable feature is the shortage (after the founding of China's planned economy in three decades has never seen economic cycles, the price is unchanged), plus China's unique urban architectural volume rate of strict control, China's housing supply far into the orbit of a free economy. Does not sound market, there will be accurate market law?
also to blame because of falling prices on the real estate acts as a policy control. Behavior of current real estate inventory control policy, the more influential on the purchase of the second suite is mainly to increase interest rates and increase the down payment within five years of second-hand house transactions heavily taxed. These two policies are indeed able to prevent real estate speculators, but I am afraid to reduce the role of house prices does not have imagined so optimistic. Purpose is very clear real estate people to buy more land to sell (or direct hire), the surface is really driving up prices. However, the entire residential real estate market is 一手房, second-hand housing and rental housing consisting of three. More second-hand housing or rental housing more expensive, option of buying second-hand housing or choose to rent rather than buy a house the more the price of 一手房 will be restricted. And when we pass stringent policies to prevent real estate speculators, the means we reduce the second-hand housing and rental housing supply, the result will boost the price of 一手房. Prevent real estate prices are lower 一手房, and reduce second-hand housing and rental housing supply is driving up the price of 一手房, the consumer he rose, house prices still no reason for the decline.
there is a very popular point of view: falling house prices because of soaring housing prices a few years ago, a few years behind the demand for overdrafts fell a few years ago is the soaring prices of the extra lessons. Support a strong basis for this view is that the district has been completed in the evening Heidengxiahuo, many uninhabited houses, indicating that the house is not enough but more. This statement is very confusing, most people agree this truth. Determine the complex economic phenomena, a simple observation can not be said the actual use, but its persuasiveness questionable. If such a conclusion can be established, then we can say that the night across the country, and no one slept on the street, which we infer from China not to build a house out? Even we can also conclude that, because a few hundred years ago, few people in China to sleeping on the streets, so many years Chinese people struggle to build a house more than was originally a mistake!
credit crunch led to periodic over-supply of falling prices is the biggest culprit round
neither the establishment of the common reasons, in addition to the previous described its theory can not be justified outside, in practice these phenomenon or the data or policy (other than a late addition to the introduction of two sets of mortgage policy) is also already there, and housing prices have lasted for at least 5 years, why wait until this year it has plummeted? Indeed, the psychological causes of people expected to work, but is expected to lead to such psychological reasons listed above, but otherwise is not in its result, we need to analyze the issue in another way. First, Wang
Who Wang, must be introduced no more, this most famous head of real estate development company, throws in the end of last year house prices He believes that China is already facing a major turning point in the real estate industry, who recommended holding money to buy a house after three or four years, and the first to own real estate in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, sales price, price cut to 15%, sometimes ground-breaking public outcry. As the largest provider of real estate, called the Chinese people not to buy a house, his remarks to the general public can not be underestimated, the impact is not consumer ready to purchase that non-repeatable, or at least unprecedented in the industry have even said that Wang's It now appears that in the end the real estate industry's no relationship between the chicken and the egg from the elegant. But one thing is certain is that Wang's
Second, public opinion, one-way amplification. lonely depression, and for some good news for property sales are often kept secret, or lightly, so that the whole property market is shrouded in an atmosphere of terror atmosphere. Period, many economists, industry sources reported behavior of the media raised the one-sided criticism,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], or the authors demonstrated in detail the scientific data collected letters, not informative, is not comprehensive and so on, but the mainstream media were all blocked. CCTV as an example, the January 10 , the chain also rose 1%, the data has a world of difference between the two sides. Consumers would have been
Third, the bank credit crunch. Although the media a noisy and Wang's real estate high dive, even though many consumers are on hold, but that time most developers did not agree, because the proximal supply and demand did not occur within a period of downturn, inflation also increased, mutatis mutandis, the experience usual stick to it will win. Here lies the problem, developers could not go, because banks have tightened their purse strings. Real estate industry is capital-intensive industry, leaving the bank's support, relying on the developer to complete the whole project is almost exclusively a fantasy, but this year the credit crunch on real estate development enterprises, especially the strict control of loans, making a lot of cash shortage SMEs have embarrassed a dilemma: either to stop work in progress into a schedule, enterprises into semi-paralyzed; or price, to obtain cash to complete construction in progress, while ensuring the normal operation of enterprises. The face of a national credit crunch, small developers call on nowhere, Zapan dumping is the only rational choice, then one by one real estate began to cut prices in a variety of name, and then sweeping Shenzhou property prices.
Make a decline in house prices finally! When the amount of people are pleasantly surprised when the first celebration, we should also see a decline in the price simply because the credit crunch led banks periodically result of oversupply. This stage in the end to how long? And then disappear when the Zapan dumping occurs when the influx of what outcome? Indeed, the trend of the property market confusing, no one can sees clearly know the future. But one can tell you is, if the market exists, supply and demand is always impregnable. Extreme due to the current property market downturn, real estate is not only less and less new construction, new residential land transactions are less and less confidence in the developer of the real estate industry is slowly failure, the future housing supply is drastically reduced, until After this round of price trend, price must rise from the ashes is also to counter the unknown!
the central bank is the prices of goods with different credit policies adopted confusing sharp price fall under the Bo tube is about how management refining in a straight line? .
need to declare that, I think prices will be in silence periodically rise again, this is a fact and not to judge value judgments. Facts to determine what is the true face of things, but what value judgments against what is expected. That prices must rise, which is a fact to judge; say that I hope house prices do not rise, this is a value judgments. Unfortunately, ordinary people often can not tell the difference between the two: you predict house prices to rise, he thinks you want to housing prices, so the bricks filled saliva coming, though prices later proved indeed gone up; you predict house prices to fall, that you are against rising house prices, so you're the spokesman for the interests of the people, though prices later proved not fall!
the central people's credit policy has been puzzling? When the pork soared when the policy is to support the central pig enterprises, loans to these companies strongly support the requirement is relaxed to enlarge; the time when the housing boom, the central policies to curb real estate developers, lending to these enterprises strict requirements of a tight or even completely blocked!
pig if the central enterprises to take on the same attitude on the developers to make money to buy pig feed business to buy medicines, forcing them to minors that Zapan dumping pigs and pork will drastic price cuts it? A little common sense can be concluded that the concentration of market hog, meat prices will certainly fall, but will fall off after the pig was it? I am afraid the last ushered in a new round of higher meat prices rising!
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